How Weights Predicted AI’s Future And What It Means For Thinking Machines

TL;DR

Thinking Machines Lab released the full weights for its first foundation model, Inkling, under Apache 2.0 before offering a closed API. The move points toward an AI market focused on model ownership and deployment control, although Inkling remains expensive to run and its performance claims await independent testing.

Thinking Machines Lab, the 17-month-old company founded by former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati, has released the full weights for its first foundation model, Inkling, under an Apache 2.0 license before introducing a closed API. The order of release matters because it gives qualified users immediate control over downloading, modifying and commercially deploying the model, while the lab openly acknowledges that Inkling does not lead every benchmark.

Inkling is a Mixture-of-Experts model with 975 billion total parameters and 41 billion active parameters for each token. According to specifications published with the release, it supports a 1-million-token context window and was pretrained on 45 trillion tokens drawn from text, images, audio and video.

The model accepts text, images and audio and produces text. Thinking Machines says its multimodal components were trained together rather than added later as adapters. The released checkpoints include BF16 and NVFP4 versions on Hugging Face, with launch-day support for Transformers, vLLM, SGLang and llama.cpp.

Vendor-published results place Inkling near the front of several tests, including reported scores of 97.1% on AIME 2026, 87.2% on GPQA Diamond and 91.4% on FORTRESS. It trails other models on several coding and agent tasks, including SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench 2.1. Some results used a prerelease checkpoint, and independent replication is not yet available.

At a glance
reportWhen: announced July 15, 2026; independent ev…
The developmentThinking Machines Lab released Inkling’s full model weights on July 15, 2026, putting open access ahead of a closed commercial API.
AI Dispatch · Reality Check · 16 July 2026

The weights came first: what Inkling actually signals

Mira Murati’s lab shipped its first foundation model — and the model isn’t the story. The order of operations is: full weights, Apache 2.0, day one, before any closed API. Plus a rare concession — the lab says it’s not the strongest model available, open or closed.

975B / 41B
total / active · MoE
1M
context window
45T
pretrain tokens
T · I · A
text · image · audio in
Apache 2.0
the licence*
Licence over leaderboard — what’s actually open
Model weightsBF16 + NVFP4 checkpoints on Hugging Face — download, modify, commercialize, keep
Apache 2.0 licenceconfirmed on the model card & HF repo — the real thing, not a source-available lookalike
Day-0 toolingtransformers · vLLM · SGLang · llama.cpp · TokenSpeed · Unsloth
Training data / pipelinenot published — open weights ≠ open source. Industry norm, but say it plainly
Separate use policy?reported: a Model Acceptable Use Policy over parameters & modified versions, barring surveillance, deception & fully automated decisions affecting rights
Unverified — check the model card yourself. If it reads as reported, Apache 2.0 isn’t the whole legal picture, and for ISR / geospatial / public-safety builders that clause is a go/no-go, not a footnote.
▲ Where it’s strong
  • AIME 2026 97.1%
  • GPQA Diamond 87.2%
  • MCP Atlas (Nemotron 44.7%) 74.1%
  • VoiceBench · open-weight audio frontier 91.4%
  • FORTRESS adversarial · best open 78.0%
  • ForecastBench · calibration 61.1
▼ Where it’s behind
  • HLE text-only (GLM-5.2 40.1%) 29.7%
  • SWE-bench Pro (GLM-5.2 62.1%) 54.3%
  • Terminal-Bench 2.1 (GLM-5.2 82.7%) 63.8%
  • SWE-bench Verified (Fable 5 95.0%) 77.6%
  • Design Arena · 2nd open, behind GLM-5.2 ~10th
◆ The dial nobody’s talking about — controllable thinking effort

A 0.2 → 0.99 effort setting trades reasoning tokens against cost & latency, so you get a curve, not a point. On Terminal-Bench 2.1 it reportedly matches Nemotron 3 Ultra at ~⅓ the tokens. Peak score is a vanity metric when you serve millions of calls; the cost curve is what ships. (Bonus: its chain of thought compressed on its own during RL — nobody rewarded it; efficiency did.)

0.2 · fast & cheap 0.99 · max effort
⚑ The China question — & the irony

Pitched as the Western alternative to Chinese open weights (censorship-resistance training is the differentiator). But GLM-5.2 still wins on agentic/reasoning and Kimi K2.6 often on multimodal: best American open model, second in the open field. The irony — post-training was bootstrapped on synthetic data from Kimi K2.5.

⚠ Open weights you probably can’t run

BF16 needs ≥2 TB aggregate VRAM (8× B300 / 16× H200). NVFP4 still needs ≥600 GB. Not a workstation model — a 512 GB fleet falls just short. “Open” ≠ “runnable.” Mitigations: 1-bit GGUFs (~74% acc.), hosted eval routes, and Inkling-Small (12B active) — the release local-first builders actually want.

The take

Open weights used to be a consolation prize. Inkling is a strategic open release — Apache 2.0, natively multimodal, honestly marketed, published complete on day one, optimized for deployment rather than headlines (the model isn’t the product; the fine-tuning platform is). It doesn’t need to win every benchmark for that to matter. The frontier is learning that owning the base beats renting the API — arriving now from the inside. For the sovereignty buyer: ① a real Western hedge against being switched off · ② verify the use policy before you build · ③ check the VRAM, then benchmark vs GLM-5.2 & Kimi K2.6 on your task.

Sources: Thinking Machines Lab (announcement, model card, HF repo, 15 Jul 2026); Hugging Face; VentureBeat, TechCrunch, BenchLM, LinkLoot, XenoSpectrum, NewsCord; Nathan Lambert via X. Benchmarks are vendor-published (some via Artificial Analysis) & await independent replication; some reflect a pre-release checkpoint. The AUP is reported, not verified here.
thorstenmeyerai.com

Open Release Reshapes Model Ownership

Releasing the weights first makes ownership and deployment control part of Inkling’s core offer, rather than a later concession. Organizations able to host the model can modify it, fine-tune it for private data and reduce their dependence on an API provider that may change pricing, access or usage limits.

The model also offers a reported 0.2-to-0.99 reasoning-effort setting, allowing operators to trade additional reasoning tokens for cost and response time. Thinking Machines reports that Inkling can match Nemotron 3 Ultra on Terminal-Bench 2.1 while using about one-third as many tokens. That claim could matter to high-volume operators, but it still requires outside testing under production conditions.

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Inkling Joins the Open-Weight Race

Open-weight models have become an alternative to systems available only through hosted interfaces. Inkling enters that market as a US-developed multimodal model competing with Chinese releases including GLM-5.2 and Kimi K2.6, which retain reported advantages on some reasoning, agent and multimodal tests.

Thinking Machines has also previewed Inkling-Small, a 276-billion-parameter model with 12 billion active parameters. The company says the smaller version matches or exceeds the flagship on several tests, but its full weights have not yet been released. For many developers, that model may be more practical than the flagship because Inkling’s hardware requirements place it beyond ordinary workstations.

“Inkling is not the strongest model available today, closed or open.”

— Thinking Machines Lab announcement

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Benchmarks and License Need Checks

The release does not disclose Inkling’s training dataset or full training pipeline, meaning the model is open-weight but not fully open-source. Its benchmark scores are also vendor-published results, and several comparisons have not been reproduced by independent evaluators.

A separate Model Acceptable Use Policy has been reported as applying to the parameters and modified versions, with restrictions involving surveillance, deception and automated decisions affecting rights. That policy was not verified in the supplied reporting. Users will need to examine the current model card and legal terms because Apache 2.0 may not describe every applicable condition.

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Independent Tests and Smaller Weights

Researchers and prospective adopters will next test Inkling’s benchmark claims, reasoning-effort controls and multimodal performance on independent workloads. Attention will also turn to the promised Inkling-Small weight release, updated licensing information and evidence showing whether the model’s efficiency claims hold under sustained deployment.

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Key Questions

What did Thinking Machines Lab release?

The company released full BF16 and NVFP4 weights for its first foundation model, Inkling, through Hugging Face under Apache 2.0.

Why does releasing weights before an API matter?

It allows capable organizations to host, modify and fine-tune the model without depending entirely on a closed service. That can provide greater control over data and deployment.

Can Inkling run on a normal workstation?

No. The BF16 version reportedly needs at least 2 terabytes of aggregate VRAM, while NVFP4 still requires about 600 gigabytes. Those requirements limit direct deployment to well-funded operators with specialized hardware.

Is Inkling the strongest available AI model?

No. Thinking Machines itself says Inkling is not the strongest open or closed model. Its reported strengths include mathematics, adversarial robustness and audio, while it trails rivals on several coding and agent benchmarks.

Are Inkling’s performance results confirmed?

The reported scores come from the developer and associated evaluations. They offer an initial comparison, but independent replication remains pending, and some tests used a prerelease checkpoint.

Source: Thorsten Meyer AI

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