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Polish writer Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report follows the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure into fuel markets, food production and European energy security. Figures cited through Sept. 26 describe sharply reduced tanker traffic, rising oil prices and risks to future harvests; the report also details local shortages and market gains while distinguishing them from broader supply claims.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March is linking the Gulf conflict to higher fuel costs, risks to food supplies and concerns about winter heating in Europe. His report, with figures as of Sept. 26, 2026, traces those effects from oil shipping through fertiliser, harvests and household energy dependence.
Wojcik writes that US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, according to the report, which cites the International Energy Agency describing the disruption as the largest the oil market has seen. A fragile ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer before breaking down.
Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, up 19 percent in a month, Wojcik reports. It was around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on Sept. 24. On Sept. 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. The United States rejected it, according to the report. Wojcik also describes a possible Red Sea detour complicated by Houthi forces seizing a key Yemeni port.
The report follows the shock into shipping, fuel and agriculture. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10. Wojcik notes that the fund is small and its manager says rates would fall if the strait reopened. He also cites Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, US diesel exceeding $6 a gallon on Sept. 10, and French data showing 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20.
From Tanker Routes to Food Prices
The report’s central point is that an interruption to one shipping route can reach people far from the Gulf through linked supply chains. Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, Wojcik writes, while diesel powers transport and farm operations. The FAO warns that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Those effects may arrive with a delay. Crops already planted can mask a supply problem until a smaller harvest comes in, the report says. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is an estimate, not a reported count of people already affected.
For Poland, the consequences touch both food production and energy security. Wojcik describes a country bordering the war in Ukraine, reliant on coal and imported gas for heating, and increasing military spending with borrowed money. His account links those existing dependencies to pressure on fuel, harvests and the coming winter.
Poland Faces Existing Pressures
Wojcik frames the 2026 crisis against years of replacing stockpiles and other reserves with cheaper suppliers and guarantees. He argues that this left countries more exposed when several dependencies were tested at once. That is his interpretation of the pattern; the report’s specific examples include the Hormuz closure, refinery disruptions and reduced fertiliser flows.
European potato production provides a local example of how different pressures can compound. After a continent-wide glut in 2025, Polish growers harvested about 7 million tonnes, 18 percent more than the previous year, and some farmers sold below cost. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less the following season. Five heatwaves and drought then hit, and their growers’ organisation expected harvests to be down 25 percent, according to Wojcik.
In Belgium, the report says, processing potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days. It also notes that the 2025 Global Report on Food Crises recorded two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and estimates food-assistance funding fell 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. These figures describe the baseline pressures that preceded the current disruption.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— Food and Agriculture Organization, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Supply Effects Still Unfolding
The report describes risks and early indicators, but the eventual scale of harvest losses and food-price effects remains uncertain. The FAO warning extends into 2027, and the impact will depend in part on how long fertiliser deliveries remain constrained and what harvests produce.
It is also unclear when tanker traffic through Hormuz might resume. Wojcik says Washington rejected Iran’s proposed road map; he cites one report that the US president expects bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections. That expectation is attributed to a report, not presented as a confirmed decision. The excerpt does not provide further detail on the proposal or the US response.
In France, the official government position is that there is no fuel shortage, even as 15 percent of stations were reported out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20. Wojcik says about nine in ten dry stations belonged to TotalEnergies, where a €1.99-a-litre petrol cap drew drivers as prices elsewhere reached records. The official count only registers a station when all petrol grades or diesel are unavailable, so the measure may not capture every supply gap.
Ceasefire and Harvest Milestones
The next major test is whether diplomacy can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and whether any ceasefire holds. A reopening could ease tanker costs and oil prices, while a continued closure would sustain pressure on fuel and shipping. The report gives no confirmed date for renewed talks or a change in the naval blockade.
Food impacts will become clearer as late-2026 harvests arrive and fertiliser availability is assessed. Wojcik’s report says the FAO expects supply tightness to persist into 2027. In Europe, potato harvest estimates and prices will offer a near-term measure of how last year’s surplus, reduced planting and this year’s heat and drought have combined.
For readers in Poland and elsewhere, the report points to winter heating as another measure to watch. It describes Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas but does not provide a specific forecast of household bills, reserve levels or possible shortages. Those outcomes remain dependent on energy supply, prices and policy decisions in the months ahead.
Key Questions
What is the main development in Wojcik’s report?
It traces how the Strait of Hormuz closure is affecting oil shipping and creating risks for fuel, fertiliser, food production and winter energy security.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
Wojcik reports a decline of more than 90 percent since the closure began in March. The report gives no more specific daily traffic figure.
Does the report say France has run out of fuel?
No. It says 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, while the government ruled out a general shortage. The reported gaps were concentrated at TotalEnergies stations with a price cap.
What could the closure mean for food supplies?
Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Source: hn
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